Fannie Mae’s latest outlook suggests that mortgage rates may remain higher for longer than many had anticipated, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and ongoing economic uncertainty. The revised expectations highlight the challenges facing the housing market as borrowers continue to navigate elevated borrowing costs alongside limited housing supply.
Hopes for near-term interest rate cuts are fading as recent inflation data shows renewed signs of persistence, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path forward. While earlier expectations had pointed toward potential easing this year, the latest economic readings suggest policymakers may need to keep borrowing costs elevated longer than anticipated.
Five-year mortgage rates have surged past the 5% threshold as geopolitical tensions tied to a major international conflict continue to ripple through global financial markets. The sharp rise in borrowing costs has created new challenges for homeowners and prospective buyers, underscoring how quickly geopolitical developments can influence domestic housing affordability.
A recent strategy involving mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac produced a brief decline in mortgage rates, but the improvement proved short-lived as questions about implementation dampened market momentum. The episode underscores how sensitive mortgage pricing is to both policy signals and execution clarity in a housing market already facing affordability strain.
A proposed rule from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development is drawing intense concern from housing advocates, public housing authorities, and families living in mixed-status households, who argue that the change could destabilize thousands of families and increase the risk of homelessness. The proposal would tighten eligibility standards for federally assisted housing in a way that critics believe would effectively bar households containing any ineligible members from receiving rental assistance, even if other members qualify.
Multiple reports in the last week indicate that the Trump administration is close to releasing a plan to end conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fox Business reported that Wall Street bankers and Trump administration officials have started outlining a stock deal to finance Fannie and Freddie’s recapitalization plan.
Opinion-Editorial (Op-Ed) Disclaimer For NAMP® Library Articles: The views and opinions expressed in the NAMP® Library articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect any official NAMP® policy or position. Examples of analysis performed within this article are only examples. They should not be utilized in real-world application as they are based only on very limited and dated open source information. Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of NAMP®. Nothing contained in this article should be considered legal advice.
Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Mark Calabria told attendees of the Mortgage Bankers Association’s annual National Secondary Market conference that a privatization plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is in the works. In addition, the agency plans to finalize a housing reform plan that would begin to raise capital for Fannie and Freddie in the beginning of next year.
Opinion-Editorial (Op-Ed) Disclaimer For NAMP® Library Articles: The views and opinions expressed in the NAMP® Library articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect any official NAMP® policy or position. Examples of analysis performed within this article are only examples. They should not be utilized in real-world application as they are based only on very limited and dated open source information. Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of NAMP®. Nothing contained in this article should be considered legal advice.
Housing experts continue to forecast a busy rest of the year for mortgage processors and underwriters. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released forecasts last week indicating that a strong economy, healthy labor market and low mortgage rates will keep the housing market steady for the remainder of 2019.
Opinion-Editorial (Op-Ed) Disclaimer For NAMP® Library Articles: The views and opinions expressed in the NAMP® Library articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect any official NAMP® policy or position. Examples of analysis performed within this article are only examples. They should not be utilized in real-world application as they are based only on very limited and dated open source information. Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of NAMP®. Nothing contained in this article should be considered legal advice.
Last month, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced changes to underwriting requirements to mitigate high-risk mortgage applications. The agency has updated its Technology Open to Approved Lenders (TOTAL) mortgage scorecard “to manage the decrease in average borrower credit scores and the excessive risk layering that results when multiple risk factors are present.”
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Last month, the U.S. Senate confirmed the appointment of Mark A. Calabria as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Calabria, who was nominated by President Donald Trump in December, was confirmed on a 52-44 vote. The vote went along party lines, with the 52 affirming votes coming from all Republicans and all 44 no votes coming from Democrats.
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Both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have programs that provide refinance options for borrowers whose loan-to-value ration on a new mortgage would exceed the maximum allowed for standard limited no cash-out refinances. The programs were announced last year in conjunction with the end of the the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP).
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Freddie Mac’s asset and income modeler (AIM) is now available for self-employed borrowers through Loan Product Advisor, the company’s automated underwriting system (AUS). Freddie Mac said in a statement that its offering is on the only AUS-integrated solution in the industry that can assess self-employed income.
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The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) published a mortgagee letter last month that provides guidance on the use of third-party verification (TPV) services to verify a borrower’s employment, income, and asset information. The guidance applies to all FHA Title II forward mortgages and Home Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECM).
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Fannie Mae has revised downward its forecast for first-quarter economic growth as well as home sales and purchase mortgage originations. Fannie’s February economic forecast includes a prediction of 1.7 percent annualized economic growth during the first quarter of 2019. That’s down 0.1 percent from its previous forecast. It’s also well below the 2.8 percent growth Fannie expects to be reported for the fourth quarter of 2018.
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Fannie Mae expects the Federal Reserve to limit itself to one rate hike in 2019, which it says will help home sales stabilize this year. In its recently released January Economic and Housing Outlook, Fannie said it expects mortgage rates to hover around the 4.5 percent mark, where they ended 2018. It also predicts slower house price appreciation of 4.2 percent in 2019, compared with 5.5 percent in 2018.
Opinion-Editorial (Op-Ed) Disclaimer For NAMP® Library Articles: The views and opinions expressed in the NAMP® Library articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect any official NAMP® policy or position. Examples of analysis performed within this article are only examples. They should not be utilized in real-world application as they are based only on very limited and dated open source information. Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of NAMP®. Nothing contained in this article should be considered legal advice.
Written By: Bonnie Wildt
I have said it before and I will say it again and that is, do not believe everything you hear or read for that matter. In this particular instance I am referring to AUS Findings. I have had countless conversations with processors and loan officer who want to know why I am asking for documentation that the AUS findings have clearly stated wasn’t needed or worse, they can’t believe I am turning a loan down that has an Approve/Eligible. So here it is again and pay particular attention to the details because just because you have an Approve/Eligible or Accept doesn’t necessarily mean you have a done deal.