The U.S. housing market lost additional momentum in July as rising mortgage rates and stubbornly high home prices discouraged prospective buyers from moving forward with purchases. Existing-home sales declined for the second consecutive month, reinforcing concerns that affordability continues to prevent a stronger housing recovery even as demand remains present in many parts of the country.
American consumers are once again feeling the effects of rising living costs as higher gasoline prices and climbing mortgage rates place additional strain on household finances. After several months of modest improvements in affordability, renewed increases in energy prices are creating ripple effects throughout the economy, making everything from commuting to purchasing a home more expensive.
The U.S. housing market continues to navigate a challenging environment as elevated mortgage rates, cautious buyers, and slowing home construction create fresh obstacles for an industry that has struggled to regain momentum. While inventory has improved in many markets compared to the past few years, affordability remains the dominant issue, leaving both builders and prospective homeowners searching for signs of relief.
Many prospective homebuyers continue asking the same question: When will mortgage rates finally begin to move lower? While many people look to the Federal Reserve for answers, housing economists say the better indicator is often the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. Although the Fed plays an important role in shaping the broader economy, mortgage rates tend to follow movements in long-term Treasury yields much more closely than changes in the federal funds rate.
Investor enthusiasm surrounding the future of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac encountered a reality check this week after investment firm BTIG downgraded both companies to a neutral rating, citing growing uncertainty surrounding their long-awaited exit from government conservatorship. The move reflects increasing concern among analysts that meaningful progress toward privatization may take longer than many investors had anticipated.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported improved financial results for the second quarter of 2020. The two government sponsored enterprises released their quarterly earnings last week. The reports provided further evidence of a strong housing market during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Last week produced a number of positive trends for the housing and mortgage markets. Fannie Mae reported that home buyers and sellers feel better about the market, as its monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index increased in June.
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The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a pair of Notices of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRMs) last week, one of which aims to eliminate debt-to-income (DTI) requirements from qualified mortgages. The NPRMs were made to address the impending expiration of the GSE patch, set to expire in January.
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There were a number of signals this week that the housing and mortgage markets are weathering the COVID-19 pandemic. Black Knight, a provider of integrated software, data and analytics used in the business processes across the homeownership lifecycle, reported in its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, that forbearance volumes fell for the first time since the crisis during the week between May 26 and June 2.
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Fannie Mae announced last week that it will require lenders to obtain additional documentation regarding self-employment income. The temporary requirements were included in the latest updates of an ongoing lender letter Fannie issued to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Every economic and housing indicator is on the decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Fannie Mae delivered this assessment last week in its latest Economic and Housing Outlook.
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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac released quarterly earnings last week that showed the extent of the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic had in a short amount of time. Both GSEs expect the pandemic to negatively affect financial performance for the remainder of the year.
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New data released last week reinforced the strength and potential of the mortgage refinance market. According to Black Knight’s latest Mortgage Monitor report, there were more than 11 million candidates for refinancing as of February 20.
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Economic activity during the first month of 2020 buoyed expectations of a strong year in housing and for mortgage processors and underwriters. Fannie Mae’s most recent Economic & Housing Outlook, forecasted a 3.9 percent annual increase in residential fixed investment, following last year’s 0.1 percent contraction.
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Although industry experts have forecasted an increase in purchase mortgages in 2020, the dearth of housing inventory for sale may render those predictions a bit too optimistic. Prospective homebuyers looking forward to the upcoming spring season may struggle to find their ideal home. According to Realtor.com's January housing data, the national inventory of homes for sale plummeted nearly 14 percent year-over-year.
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Written By: Bonnie Wildt
I have said it before and I will say it again and that is, do not believe everything you hear or read for that matter. In this particular instance I am referring to AUS Findings. I have had countless conversations with processors and loan officer who want to know why I am asking for documentation that the AUS findings have clearly stated wasn’t needed or worse, they can’t believe I am turning a loan down that has an Approve/Eligible. So here it is again and pay particular attention to the details because just because you have an Approve/Eligible or Accept doesn’t necessarily mean you have a done deal.