The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting, as central bank officials assess recent progress on inflation while remaining cautious about easing policy too quickly. With borrowing costs already at restrictive levels and economic signals sending mixed messages, policymakers appear inclined to maintain their wait-and-see approach rather than commit to immediate rate cuts.
Signs of stress in the non-qualified mortgage sector continued to surface toward the end of 2025, as an increase in loan impairments that emerged in November persisted into December. While overall non-QM performance remains far from crisis levels, industry analysts say the trend reflects a market that is adjusting to prolonged higher interest rates, tighter liquidity, and borrower payment sensitivity rather than one experiencing sudden deterioration.
As 2026 gets underway, the U.S. housing market is showing early signs of renewed momentum after several years of disruption marked by elevated interest rates, affordability strain, and constrained inventory. While the market has not returned to the rapid pace seen earlier in the decade, economists and industry professionals say the opening months of the year suggest a gradual shift toward greater stability and modest growth.
U.S. President Donald Trump has instructed his economic advisers and political representatives to prepare for a sweeping plan to purchase as much as $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities in 2026, signaling a renewed willingness to use federal market intervention to support the U.S. housing sector. The directive, confirmed by people familiar with the matter, represents one of the most aggressive housing finance proposals floated in recent years and underscores the growing political focus on affordability and mortgage rate pressures.
A proposed increase to mortgage fees tied to the Department of Veterans Affairs home loan program has been temporarily put on hold after industry groups raised concerns about its potential impact on veteran borrowers. Lawmakers on the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee delayed a planned markup of legislation that would have raised VA loan fees, signaling a willingness to reassess the proposal amid warnings that higher costs could undermine affordability for those the program is designed to serve.
The Federal Reserve’s move toward ending quantitative tightening (QT)—its large‑scale reduction of Treasury and mortgage‑backed security holdings—is sparking interest in how the housing finance market might respond. According to commentary in the industry, the conclusion of QT could potentially pave the way for lower mortgage rates, though timing and magnitude remain uncertain.
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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), under the direction of Bill Pulte, is charting a new course for its 2026–2030 strategic plan—one that shifts its focus from broad housing access and equity initiatives to a more risk-based supervisory framework. This pivot comes in direct response to recent executive orders issued by President Donald Trump, which have reprioritized regulatory approaches across federal agencies.
Opinion-Editorial (Op-Ed) Disclaimer For NAMP® Library Articles: The views and opinions expressed in the NAMP® Library articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect any official NAMP® policy or position. Examples of analysis performed within this article are only examples. They should not be utilized in real-world application as they are based only on very limited and dated open source information. Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of NAMP®. Nothing contained in this article should be considered legal advice.
The Federal Reserve is increasingly sounding the alarm about growing risks in the U.S. housing and labor markets. In its latest meeting minutes, officials emphasized that a “more substantial deterioration in the housing market” could spill over into broader economic weakening, with particular concern for employment.
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Mortgage industry data reveal signals pointing toward an uptick in home‑sales activity in 2026, driven largely by shifts in borrower behavior, equity patterns, and the unwinding of the “rate‑lock” effect. While affordability remains a headwind, the evolving mortgage landscape suggests increased turnover and sales opportunities on the horizon.
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The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has unveiled its proposed housing goals for the 2026–2028 cycle, revealing a shift toward easing affordable housing mandates on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The changes reflect growing concerns that current benchmarks may be distorting market behavior and placing undue strain on lenders.
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President Donald Trump has publicly challenged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to catalyze a surge in homebuilding activity, asserting that developers are sitting on a record number of vacant lots. His remarks, made on October 5, signal renewed pressure on the government‑backed mortgage firms to play a more active role in alleviating housing shortages.
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Mortgage rates have already begun easing through 2025, falling from highs above 7% into the mid‑6% range. With the Federal Reserve initiating its first rate cuts in over a year, many buyers and homeowners are hoping for more substantial relief. But analysts caution that while further declines are possible in October, they are likely to be measured, not dramatic.
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Recent adjustments to FHA policy have significantly reshaped financing options for visa holders. Under the revised rules, non‑permanent residents are now excluded from FHA eligibility for Title I loans (which include property improvements and manufactured-home loans). This change tightens the window for many prospective immigrant buyers.
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Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group has revised its expectations for mortgage rates and housing activity, offering a more tempered view of the market’s recovery path. In its September outlook, the ESR team now projects the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to fall to 6.4% by the end of 2025 and further down to 5.9% by the close of 2026.
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The Federal Reserve’s anticipated quarter‑point rate cut has sparked optimism—but mortgage rates aren’t likely to tumble in tandem, leaving many buyers and refinancers with modest gains at best. Short‑term rate moves from the Fed often lose their punch by the time they reach consumers.
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Written By: Bonnie Wildt
I have said it before and I will say it again and that is, do not believe everything you hear or read for that matter. In this particular instance I am referring to AUS Findings. I have had countless conversations with processors and loan officer who want to know why I am asking for documentation that the AUS findings have clearly stated wasn’t needed or worse, they can’t believe I am turning a loan down that has an Approve/Eligible. So here it is again and pay particular attention to the details because just because you have an Approve/Eligible or Accept doesn’t necessarily mean you have a done deal.